Just a heads up if you...if you didn't know...FHA has just announced...
they will begin charging 2.25% in up front mortgage insurance (from 1.75% last year and 1.50% the previous year) and
require 10% as a down payment for borrowers with poor credit scores.
This is to begin Spring 2010.
The details are still to be released.
Friday, January 22, 2010
Wednesday, January 06, 2010
2010
Who are the big losers going to be in 2010? Here are a few hints:
1. Smaller regional banks. According to Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) figures, small banks have been repaying TARP funds much more slowly than larger national banks. A total of 663 banks with $58.6 billion in outstanding loans that have not yet paid back the U.S. Treasury, and they do have five years to use the funds before they must get the bailout paid back. Many of them, however, probably never will pay back. One of these banks has already gone bankrupt and two others have failed. Others face government sanctions, and 56 missed their last quarterly dividend payments to investors.
2. Luxury Homeowners. Those with mortgages of $1 million or more are defaulting at twice the average U.S. rate, according to a Bloomberg report. The stock market decline and cuts in bonuses and pay have squeezed many high end owners who are also seeing their mortgages become seriously under water in many markets. As home prices continue to decline in markets such as New York-New Jersey and in many east and west coast markets, expect even more $1 million plus homes to become available for Short Sales.
3. Commercial and multi-family property owners. Look for Lenders to stop carrying along commercial properties in serious default. The Mortgage Bankers’ Association has reported delinquencies in this category to be up in the 3rd quarter and we fully expect that the 4th quarter results will continue this trend. This will be a tremendous opportunity for Short Sale flippers and buy and hold Investors to acquire reasonably priced properties.
Hiring Expectations for 2010
In order to safeguard against a double-dip recession (which many bearish economists predict) there needs to be some acceleration in hiring. Will it happen in 2010?
There’s a little good news on the job front predicted this year, according to CareerBuilder, one of the largest online job boards. Their forecast indicates 20% of employers will increase the number of permanent, full-time employees in 2010, which is a 14% improvement over 2009. Only 9% of CareerBuilder employers plan to shrink the permanent employee base in 2010, which is down 16% from 2009. The largest percentage, 61% expect no hiring changes during the year, and 10% of the survey respondents were unsure of their hiring trends for 2010. There were fewer changes expected in part time hiring, but more employers, 11%, expect to add part-timers than plan to lay off (8%).
The fields that look good to expand in 2010, according to CareerBuilder, are information technology, manufacturing, financial services, business and professional services. Technology and customer service were the two biggest fields slated for hiring. Expect to see many freelancers and independent contractors hired rather than permanent employees in many cases.
When Will Home Prices Hit Bottom?
Our crystal ball has predicted a continuing decline in home values in the majority of markets. When will we begin to see some improvement?
According to First American CoreLogic prices will decline through the winter and then, spurred by lower unemployment rates and lower housing re-sales inventory, the prices will begin to bounce off the bottom in March. First American CoreLogic expects 45 of the largest housing markets to decline 4.2%, much less drastic a prediction than that of Deutsche Bank, which we reported a week or two ago expected a decline of 10 to 12%. First American CoreLogic projects a 1% year-over-year appreciation by October 2010.
Which projection should you follow? It depends on the details for your specific market. We tend to skew more conservative when it comes to projected values. If the decline is less than you predict, you get a built-in bonus – if it’s more than you predict, you could end up upside down. Make sure that if a decline is expected in your market you figure those projections into your Short Sale offers. On average the Short Sale will take three or four months to complete, and may take longer.
New Home Sales Plunge; Expected to Rise in 2010
The November new home sales statistics were expected to be up, but instead declined by 11.3% in November (355,000 new homes). The decline may be due to a drying up of buyers under the original $8,000 home buyer’s tax credit program, or uncertainty about whether the program would be continued.
With the extension and expansion of the tax credit program economists expect to see a new surge in new home sales early in 2010. The expansion to include those looking for credits on move-up homes will give a good boost to the home construction industry for those projects that can be completed by mid-year. The NAR reports a 7.9 month supply of new homes currently on the market, or 235,000 for sale as of the end of November.
1. Smaller regional banks. According to Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) figures, small banks have been repaying TARP funds much more slowly than larger national banks. A total of 663 banks with $58.6 billion in outstanding loans that have not yet paid back the U.S. Treasury, and they do have five years to use the funds before they must get the bailout paid back. Many of them, however, probably never will pay back. One of these banks has already gone bankrupt and two others have failed. Others face government sanctions, and 56 missed their last quarterly dividend payments to investors.
2. Luxury Homeowners. Those with mortgages of $1 million or more are defaulting at twice the average U.S. rate, according to a Bloomberg report. The stock market decline and cuts in bonuses and pay have squeezed many high end owners who are also seeing their mortgages become seriously under water in many markets. As home prices continue to decline in markets such as New York-New Jersey and in many east and west coast markets, expect even more $1 million plus homes to become available for Short Sales.
3. Commercial and multi-family property owners. Look for Lenders to stop carrying along commercial properties in serious default. The Mortgage Bankers’ Association has reported delinquencies in this category to be up in the 3rd quarter and we fully expect that the 4th quarter results will continue this trend. This will be a tremendous opportunity for Short Sale flippers and buy and hold Investors to acquire reasonably priced properties.
Hiring Expectations for 2010
In order to safeguard against a double-dip recession (which many bearish economists predict) there needs to be some acceleration in hiring. Will it happen in 2010?
There’s a little good news on the job front predicted this year, according to CareerBuilder, one of the largest online job boards. Their forecast indicates 20% of employers will increase the number of permanent, full-time employees in 2010, which is a 14% improvement over 2009. Only 9% of CareerBuilder employers plan to shrink the permanent employee base in 2010, which is down 16% from 2009. The largest percentage, 61% expect no hiring changes during the year, and 10% of the survey respondents were unsure of their hiring trends for 2010. There were fewer changes expected in part time hiring, but more employers, 11%, expect to add part-timers than plan to lay off (8%).
The fields that look good to expand in 2010, according to CareerBuilder, are information technology, manufacturing, financial services, business and professional services. Technology and customer service were the two biggest fields slated for hiring. Expect to see many freelancers and independent contractors hired rather than permanent employees in many cases.
When Will Home Prices Hit Bottom?
Our crystal ball has predicted a continuing decline in home values in the majority of markets. When will we begin to see some improvement?
According to First American CoreLogic prices will decline through the winter and then, spurred by lower unemployment rates and lower housing re-sales inventory, the prices will begin to bounce off the bottom in March. First American CoreLogic expects 45 of the largest housing markets to decline 4.2%, much less drastic a prediction than that of Deutsche Bank, which we reported a week or two ago expected a decline of 10 to 12%. First American CoreLogic projects a 1% year-over-year appreciation by October 2010.
Which projection should you follow? It depends on the details for your specific market. We tend to skew more conservative when it comes to projected values. If the decline is less than you predict, you get a built-in bonus – if it’s more than you predict, you could end up upside down. Make sure that if a decline is expected in your market you figure those projections into your Short Sale offers. On average the Short Sale will take three or four months to complete, and may take longer.
New Home Sales Plunge; Expected to Rise in 2010
The November new home sales statistics were expected to be up, but instead declined by 11.3% in November (355,000 new homes). The decline may be due to a drying up of buyers under the original $8,000 home buyer’s tax credit program, or uncertainty about whether the program would be continued.
With the extension and expansion of the tax credit program economists expect to see a new surge in new home sales early in 2010. The expansion to include those looking for credits on move-up homes will give a good boost to the home construction industry for those projects that can be completed by mid-year. The NAR reports a 7.9 month supply of new homes currently on the market, or 235,000 for sale as of the end of November.
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